Thursday, September 18, 2014

Independence for Scotland?

Scotland is the northern half of the island of Great Britain (why 'Great' Britain?  not because of past imperial glories but to distinguish between Lesser Britain, which is Brittany in France).  It has achieved a fame and character totally out of proportion to its size - barely five million people, a tenth of the population of Britain and a tenth of its economy - but everyone throughout the world knows about kilts, bagpipes and whisky and Scottish food such as shortbread and 'haggis'.  Scottish inventions include the steam engine, tarmac roads, television, the telephone, antibiotics; not to mention Maxwell's discovery of the laws of electromagnetism, without which modern civilisation would not be possible.  Its people speak English with a very distinctive accent and they also have their own ancestral language (Gaelic).  If you go there it does actually feel like a different country.  But - does it deserve independence from the rest of the 'United Kingdom' - comprising at present England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Island? (southern island having of course long since broken away to form its own republic, after centuries of blood and oppression from their supposed unionist compatriots).
Scotland today votes in a referendum on independence.  If it votes 'yes' - and as you have maybe read in the media, the polls are very close, the consequences will be serious, some may say calamitous.  How did it come to this?  A couple of years back, David Cameron considering himself a consummate politician, thought he could scupper the independence movement in Scotland, by offering a referendum which he thought he was certain to win, given that the supporters of independence were in a definite minority.  That was the case until a few weeks ago, when poor tactics by the 'no' to independence campaign, allowed the 'yes' movement to appeal to the heart and emotions of the Scottish people (and by definition, 'yes' always sounds more positive than 'no') so that now the result is too close to call, as they say on TV.  So the whole affair might backfire on Mr. Cameron, and if it does, he will go down in history as the British prime minister who lost half his country.
The domestic debate on this issue centres around the local economy, the national health service etc, but what concerns us at a distance should be the matter of separatist movements around the world, which generally cause great suffering, social disruption, damage to the economy and often leading to armed rebellion, displacement of populations and civil war, with no good end result.  We can think of the Biafran war in Nigeria, the 'tamil tigers' in Sri Lanka, the FARC in Columbia and of course our own abortive Caprivian 'independence' movement, which after fifteen years is still dragging through the courts, and refugees still living in Botswana.
Although the independence movement in Scotland has so far been non violent, it cannot be denied that if it succeeds the consequences will be serious, firstly to Scotland itself, because many of the big businesses and financial institutions there have threatened to move 'south of the border' if Scotland breaks away.  The rest of the UK will be weakened (can for instance the 'less-united Kingdom' retain its permanent seat on the UN security council?) the EU will be weakened, the Western alliance will be weakened, and many countries in the world will be concerned about the 'inspiration' this will give to their own separatist movements, for instance in Spain.
Meanwhile China and Mr. Putin must be quietly smiling at the sight of a western country trying to pull itself to pieces.  China does not tolerate separatists - it is one of their most serious crimes - can you imagine a referendum on Tibetan independence? - and the Ukraine crisis has arisen because Russia considers Ukraine to be a historic and cultural part of itself, so that its move towards the west and the EU is countered as a 'separatist' movement which cannot be countenanced.
Let us hope that sanity prevails and the 'no' to Scottish independence succeeds today.  But either way, damage will have been done.

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