that was telling 'em !!

The bail-out is dead. You can tell that from the immediately following scintillating Bushism: "We will continue to move forward with Congress to develop a strategy of moving forward to solve this problem" or words to that effect (couldn't be bothered to copy and paste them.

Savour the unexpected and delicious moment - a rare instance of people power deflating the vested interest politicians.

Seeing, for me, for the first time, some of America's allegedly most senior politicians up close and speaking, it was a matter of disbelief. How could this incoherent rubbish: Pelosi, the speaker, Franks, the chairman of the so-called Finance committee, be the spokespersons and shepherds of the nation? And of course, the great piece of vegetation himself. There were better, more apposite comments from people in Main Street (actually Memphis Tennessee) who were interviewed straight after.

Oh and of course the entire congress will now take two days off for Rosh Hashona. After which, they will return to work to save the Nation.

Again, why the need for a bail-out? Disaster banks are immediately bought out by slightly better organised banks, and the central banks pour tens of billions every day into the market to improve 'liquidity'. That apparently doesn't need an Act of congress. How much more of a bail-out do they want?

5 trillion

(it's easier to say in our local currency N$ or Rand)

So much to say, so little time. The deal, according to the desperate would-be bailers-out, has to be done by this evening American time, so our Asian friends will be reassured when their markets open. That's decision making at about $10m per second.
Is it the end of capitalism as we know it? Is it the biggest act of state socialism in history? Yes to both.

What is that funny sound you can hear around that cemetary in London? Could it be Karl Marx howling in his grave?

Please check out the magnificent summary in today's Sunday Times

but just a couple of genuine queries from me:

1) Aren't the biggest problems already bailed (or bole, what is the past tense?) : e.g. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac and the $85 billion for AIG? What else is there? Does the $700 B include the 85 for AIG, or was that just incidental petty cash?
2) Why does the Treasury Secretary in America need unfettered dictatorial power (cannot be challenged by the courts, or anybody) as to how he dishes out the money?
3) Speaking of the markets, is there no better way of running them in future than idiots in clown jackets screaming at each other over a cable-cluttered floor, or weird computer programs suddenly deciding to dump huge amounts of stock without any seeming human supervision? Do stock prices have to go up 9% one day, then crash 10% the next day and so on? What will happen if the $700B is approved/not approved?
3) Does this mean that the US will now not have the cash to invade Iran ?

May we live in interesting times (we do already).

Not Winning



In my time zone, watching a presidential debate means staying up till 3am and most of the local TV channels don't have the rights (I thought they'd actually be paid to carry it).
So generally don't bother, as all the sound bites are of course available later and nothing new anyway.
There was the obligatory intro on the economy and the bailout - neither candidate has a clue what to do about it, but that's OK since not many people would want the responsibility of deciding whether and how to spend $700 B. My only thought is that it is terminally bizarre that a bunch of Wall St. bankers succeeded in doing what Bin Laden and the entire Soviet Union failed to do - bring the US economy to its knees.

Anyway, only to comment on the inevitable claim by McCain the no-brain that the war in Iraq is being 'won'. No. Wars in the Middle East are never won, least of all by foreign crusading forces. Sure, despots can be overthrown, armies can be routed, and even insurgencies - temporarily - squashed. But the wars are never won - they simple create a whole new batch of traumatic circumstances and bloody problems for the next generation; or sooner than that.
And as for Afghanistan - yes, 'we' - the US and NATO are doing the right thing, at least in the time we are not bombing wedding parties, and we are reversing actions of the Taleban when they were in power (specifically, reversing the Talebans' success in stopping the poppy trade). We are the good guys and the Taleban are the bad guys. But unfortunately, the Taleban will win because it is their country and not ours. The West (including Russia) has tried to conquer Afghanistan maybe ten time in the last 200 years, each more catastrophically than the last. Read the books.
Specifically, read the legendary (but still remarkably still living) Robert Fisk's Great War for Civilisation. It'll take you a year, so it's good value.

God Keeping His secrets?

Barely a day after being switched on, the large hadron collider suffered a glitch - a contact overheated, a magnet melted (serious when it's supposed to be operating at 2 degrees above absolute zero), and a tonne of coolant - liquid helium, at the surprisingly low price of $5 per litre, spilled. Sort of like when the fan belt broke on my car, on a larger scale.

The trouble, is when you have the world's largest machine, it's not enough to have the world's best physicists in attendance, you need the world's best engineers and mechanics as well, lots of them. I don't think eggheads on their own can manage something as complicated as this.

Environmentally, I'm also slightly worried about the huge use, and wastage of helium. This is the quintessential non-sustainable resource - it is an inert rare gas, impossible to manufacture outside of nuclear fusion reactions, and found only in a few spots on earth as a by-product of million-year radioactive decay. At a rate far greater than fossil fuels, it is being consumed faster than it is made. Its most important use is as the ultimate coolant - but it is used mostly trivially for balloons at children's parties. When the ballons burst, the helium floats out of the atmosphere for ever. Why can't hydrogen be used for this? It is admittedly explosive, but that has the added benefit of blowing some rich kids up.

Anyway, from a small problem, to a day or two's delay, to a stoppage of a month or so - and now the system won't be up until next year. A small voice sounds: what if this huge and expensive machine (very cheap of course compared with the 'bailout') - never works again? Is Higgs (one of the 999 names for God) keeping his secrets well guarded ?

Of particles

and pit-bulls

On Wednesday even Google deferred to the switch-on of the LHC with a nice circular graphic. A stunning achievement, first of all in engineering – the largest machine ever built, and then the unfolding science. Unfortunately, none of the major news media including the BBC employ any journalist with so much as a sixth grade in physics, so we get some rather uninformed populist comment. “$4 billion spent, and if there are no answers, that will be end of this rubbish”. Much God-pumping as well. The idea of front-line fundamental research is that there are no answers, or rather than any ‘answer’ obtained will raise at least two further and more interesting questions. Much scoffing that that the Higg’s won’t show up. Wouldn’t be surprised. Lots of other things will.

Of course there has been some journalistic jealousy from the US side, about this European experiment. Swiss cows grazing around down-at-heel suburban buildings etc. Well, the Americans could have had their own supercollider in Texas in the 1990’s. It was cancelled, ostensibly over expense, although $2bn would be a drop in the ocean compared with defence spending. No, I think the more likely reason was pressure from the creationists.

Which brings us to the Republican candidate for VP, the lady no one had heard of a month ago – the mayor of a 5000 strong town in the territory sold by the Russians in 1867 for a few $$ as being totally useless, and who then, due to the shambolic state of Alaskan politics, somehow captured the Governorship. Anything is possible there, because Alaska is a very freaky as well as very beautiful place. Foreign policy experience, or for that matter ever been out of Alaska? Yes, once to the US mainland to meet J Mc, once to Canada, and er,.. you can see Russia from one of the islands. Yes, this is the sparsely populated Chiotka peninsula, as far from Moscow as what New York is, as someone noted, whose governor, bizarrely, is the Russian oleobillionnaire Ramon Abromovitch, the owner of Chelsea football club. A neighbourly meeting between him and the now household word of Governor Palin would be irresistable. Even more if, after his mandatory stint as Prime Minister is done, President Putin assumes the reins again. The world, as the Putin and Palin show?

A disastrous decision or a masterstroke? Unfortunately the latter. An ignorant and isolationist creationist? An insult to America’s allies? Yes and yes, but these are sure winners in a US election. Because voters want candidates to be one of them – ignorant, isolationist etc etc. Terrifying smugness and self-assurance, behind those Heirich Himmler glasses? Yes. Answers to interviewers' questions on world politics, reminiscent of the 'answers' of a beauty pageant contestant? Of course, because that's what she was. But that's exactly what's needed - the US election (and many others) are beauty pageants. (Pres. Sarcozy?)

As the man on the UK 'First Post' e-papter noted: Ignorant candiates who don't panic have nothing to fear.

Impossible to go from a (very) small town mayor to President in a couple of years? What about Grover Cleveland, who went from mayor of Buffalo to governor of New York state, to President in less than three years, admittedly in 1882. Also, the comparison breaks down since he was a Democrat, pledged to root out small and (large) town corruption. A ridiculous idea? What about the derision when it was first suggested that Ronald Reagan might run for the Presidency?

A brilliant tactical choice – as Palin mania sweeps the country, Obama is already on his was to becoming no more than an interestingfootnote in American history. Poor Barack. He never had much to say anyway, apart from saying anything to anybody depending on the audience. I note that not even the spell checker recognises him now. And despite what it says in public, Middle America, behind the voting curtain, will vent its fury on a black who dared to stand for President. They won’t try again in a hurry. So this is just another instance of the Democrats’ incurable habit of putting up unelectable candidates.

So Palin will be just a heartbeat away from the Presidency – a 72 year old heart beat at that. It would not be surprising if McCain pops his socks sometime before 2012, or at least bows out at the end of his term, leaving the way open for Palin, who will then be President until 2020. Of course she will not be able to find any country on the map, and probably go to war with a country she has not heard of a couple of months previous, but that sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Get used to it.