One week is history

Just a week since the iconic raid on Abbottabad and the achievement has become well, iconic, an established milestone in American history and culture, as set in stone, and seeming almost as long ago as the Revolutionary war - the ride of Paul Revere and the crossing of the Delaware - decisive glorious episodes so much better than the messy conflicts of WW2, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. An incisive, instant, total success with no American casualties - that is what patriotic history needs. The 150th anniversary of the outbreak of the messiest and proportionally bloodiest American conflict of all, the Civil War, has now been quietly shelved.
Of course, in the present age, there are commercial opportunities. Within an hour of Obama's announcement, we hear that a hot entrepreneur had registered the site obamadeadtees.com (nobody had the name before!) and was starting to print T shirts (illustrated) and selling them on the web site. Within 48 hours he had made his first US$ 100 000. The Jihadist had started his career as a millionaire property developer in Saudi, so he would have understood.
But that is the way all the bad guys will end, no matter how bad - as a corpse of course, but their legacy will live on, as a coffee mag and a T shirt.

Sitting up all night trying to finish a load of exam marking:


decided to take a break and flip the news on at 6am.


First TV image was of a cheering crowd in Washington. First thought: had the news of the Royal Wedding just reached America? Had the blessed couple decide to take their honeymoon in the white house (unlikely, since B.O. had not been invited).

No, an immediate cut to Obama in the last part of making his statement (a speech likely to go down in Presidential oratorical history, like the 'day of infamy') announcing that Osama Bin Laden had been killed. After the first moment of amazement, thinking that this had been a lucky strike by a drone or bunker buster bomb on a cave, the revelation that the Great Satan had his own custom built mansion in an urban area of Abbottabad (do they have abbot's in Pakistan?) less than an hour's drive from Islamabad. The networks had a hard time figuring out the exact distance - it's 50 km, not 100 km, 100 miles etc.

This was a massive structure, immovable property if there ever was one, mysterious because although presumably a million dollar residence, had no phone or internet connection, and because persons resembling known members of Osama's family had been seen going in and out! Probably also the house had planning permission applied for under Osama's own name! And within walking distance of Pakistan's most elite military academy. Actually within its security area! No wonder the Americans attacked without telling Pakistan first.

How is it possible that the Pakistani authorities had not been at least dimly aware of their new municipal resident? What does this say about US Pakistani exchange of imformation?
Meanwhile, the triumphalist crowds screaming 'USA' were gathering at 1 am in Washington and at ground zero. Their celebration is in order - even though it took nearly 10 years to find Osama. The removal of a charismatic figurehead is important - and for instance the death of Hitler almost immediately resulted in the collapse of the Third Reich - but al Qaeda is not the Nazi party - it is is a hydra-like organisation virtually independent in every territory it operates.

It should be realised that the 'war on terror' is by no means over - there will be thirst for revenge , and the coming days and weeks will be very dangerous times. The social and political problems in the middle east which gave rise to terrorism have, needless to say, not been addressed.

pic with acknowledgment to BBCnews

SWINE !

I commend you to the feature

in today's FIRST POST - long overdue, which begins to suspect the 'Swine Flu' phenomenon is an invention of the world media - highly infectious and spreading with enormous speed though every available carrier.

Just the name : SWINE FLU is a godsend for the media - 8 characters, perfect for headlines, and evoking a dread plague from those nasty dirty animals. The First Post says the problem is the general public's distrust of the media. Too right. In this and in every other context, we must remember that the media's only objective is to sell readers or viewers to advertisers. That's all they do. Maximising readership or viewership is just a step towards this objective. So any topic which can be blown into a crisis - is exciting or dramatic, which can whip up public indignation, even if no crisis actually exists, consistent of course with keeping the message within the readers' or viewers' mosquito sized attention span, is the thing to go for. That's why the mainstream media of course supported the Iraq invasion - war is exciting, and sells papers.

It helps the story too if the source of the problem is that laughably shambolic country Mexico. But what do we have, on examining the facts. How many people have provably died from the virus, even there. Seven. That's right. That's fewer than the number of people who have been bitten by a snake and then struck by lightning the same day this month in Africa. Has nobody thought that the air in Mexico city has something to do with the monopoly of fatalities there? It (the air) could kill anybody.

We have the ridiculous spokesman from the WHO - yogi bear with a white computer mouse clamped to his ear) - raising the alert to level five, whatever that means. There will be a huge increase in funding for public health organisations, and vast profits for Big Pharma.

The social network sites, especially the aptly named Twitter, promote an exponential ignorant panic.

And for what? But the risk is there, they say, even if it does not materialise. What about the 50 million who died in 1919? Yes, but things are a bit different from 1919. Then, they did not even know what a virus was. They had millions of soldiers crowded together and living in sub-human conditions. Now, we know what the organisms are. We are hopefully rather more settled and organised than in the aftermath of World War I. The disease can be treated. You have less chance of dying of flu than of winning the lottery.

So, worldwide, the enormous flu-scare industry has been re-launched. Hundreds of millions will be spent. On an ailment which, for those without a connection to Mexico, will be no more serious than a day or two of snuffles.

Incidentally, I think that viruses (structurally) are beautiful - a globe surrounded by little protein studs, all arranged, and for ever mutating, to latch on to receptor cells of their host. Maybe my sympathies are with them. (Picture courtesy of wikimedia)

$?$?$?$?$?$?$?$?

Sorry to seem a bit stupid, but can anyone explain to me the difference between:

1. bailing out the banks
2. making funds 'available' to banks
3. buying a stake in the banks
4. guaranteeing the loans between banks
5. buying up the bank's 'toxic' assets

Whatever the differences, they seem to have one similarity: they all cost hundreds of billions. And as these packages are announced one by one in breathless sequence, the German chancellor made the astounding statement that 'no bank would ever be allowed to fail !' (wish I'd taken up banking) And don't national parliaments have to approve this sort of thing, rather than being simply announced by presidents in their rose gardens?)

The stock markets race up and down, and the demented trader lemmings jump off the cliffs one day and sprint all the way up it the next. If prices move less than 5%, it is a really boring day.

What of the $700bn US bailout? That (as of today) is apparently of 'secondary' importance. We have a new package of $250 billion announced (is that part of the original 700, new money, or does it hardly matter?) for buying shares in the banks. Doesn't that announcement kind of affect the share price of the banks fairly insanely? What price is being paid for the shares? What is going to be done with the taxpayers' shareholding? Are all the banks' top brass continuing with the same bonuses and perks as before? Are the banks going to be differently run, maybe changing the previous universal policy of treating their customers with total contempt? That is one question easily anwered.

Latest use for cellular technology
Yup, that's right, to win the War on Terror.


The latest idea, put forward by British consultants, and approved by HM Government as having 'some merit' is to distribute cellphones with cameras (I thought for the past 5 years all cellphones had cameras) so that ordinary Afghan peasants could make their own videos as a counter to Taleban propaganda and post them on the web.
Story on the BBC.
Wonder whether it has occurred to the honourable government that
i) not so many Afghan peasants have internet access and blogger accounts and anyway
ii) most Afghan peasants ARE the Taleban.

File this idea under 'needs more work'.

PS my pic (ack to politicalimpressions.com) was image-googled under Afghanistan - if I had searched under Taleban the FBI spyware secretly but certainly installed on my computer would have put me on the Terror list. More of that tomorrow.

that was telling 'em !!

The bail-out is dead. You can tell that from the immediately following scintillating Bushism: "We will continue to move forward with Congress to develop a strategy of moving forward to solve this problem" or words to that effect (couldn't be bothered to copy and paste them.

Savour the unexpected and delicious moment - a rare instance of people power deflating the vested interest politicians.

Seeing, for me, for the first time, some of America's allegedly most senior politicians up close and speaking, it was a matter of disbelief. How could this incoherent rubbish: Pelosi, the speaker, Franks, the chairman of the so-called Finance committee, be the spokespersons and shepherds of the nation? And of course, the great piece of vegetation himself. There were better, more apposite comments from people in Main Street (actually Memphis Tennessee) who were interviewed straight after.

Oh and of course the entire congress will now take two days off for Rosh Hashona. After which, they will return to work to save the Nation.

Again, why the need for a bail-out? Disaster banks are immediately bought out by slightly better organised banks, and the central banks pour tens of billions every day into the market to improve 'liquidity'. That apparently doesn't need an Act of congress. How much more of a bail-out do they want?

5 trillion

(it's easier to say in our local currency N$ or Rand)

So much to say, so little time. The deal, according to the desperate would-be bailers-out, has to be done by this evening American time, so our Asian friends will be reassured when their markets open. That's decision making at about $10m per second.
Is it the end of capitalism as we know it? Is it the biggest act of state socialism in history? Yes to both.

What is that funny sound you can hear around that cemetary in London? Could it be Karl Marx howling in his grave?

Please check out the magnificent summary in today's Sunday Times

but just a couple of genuine queries from me:

1) Aren't the biggest problems already bailed (or bole, what is the past tense?) : e.g. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac and the $85 billion for AIG? What else is there? Does the $700 B include the 85 for AIG, or was that just incidental petty cash?
2) Why does the Treasury Secretary in America need unfettered dictatorial power (cannot be challenged by the courts, or anybody) as to how he dishes out the money?
3) Speaking of the markets, is there no better way of running them in future than idiots in clown jackets screaming at each other over a cable-cluttered floor, or weird computer programs suddenly deciding to dump huge amounts of stock without any seeming human supervision? Do stock prices have to go up 9% one day, then crash 10% the next day and so on? What will happen if the $700B is approved/not approved?
3) Does this mean that the US will now not have the cash to invade Iran ?

May we live in interesting times (we do already).