The centenary of a genius:  Alan Turing 1912 - 1954

Alan Turing, without whom the 21^st century as we know it would not have come about, was born  100 years ago this Saturday 23^rd June.  He laid the foundations of computing, and without him, our information dependent civilisation would not have been possible: and the little devices with illuminated window and attached keyboard, which all of us carry around everywhere and on which our lives seemingly depend, would not exist.   Although less known, he stands without doubt beside Newton, Maxwell, Darwin and Einstein as the one of the giants who laid the scientific foundations of our world.

He was born on 23^rd June 1912, grew up in England, showed early signs of mathematical genius, and went to Cambridge University, embarking on an illustrious academic career.

In 1935, long before the construction of any practical computer, Turing published a seminal paper called “On computable numbers”.  This paper was far more than to do with numbers.  It explained what it really meant for a problem to be ‘computable’, i.e. solvable, what an algorithm was, and how information was not just a vague concept but really a definable quantity which could be processed, from an input or question, to an output or final answer.  He proposed a machine, ridiculously simple in principle, which could be built to solve any computable problem.  It consisted just of a long tape containing symbols which embodied the problem.  A reading head travelled along the head, one symbol at a time, reversing direction if necessary, reading each symbol and rewriting it according to the ‘program’ built into the head (like the machines which used to be used for printing plastic labels or name tags).  One of the instructions in the head might be to stop – in which case the program was terminated and the symbols now on the tape constituted the answer to the problem!  This was the famous Turing machine.  A machine could be designed for every problem, as we said.  But wait – a Turing machine could be designed to simulate another Turing machine – in fact, a machine could be designed in theory to emulate all other Turing machines.  This was the universal Turing machine, which could be programmed to solve any computable problem!  In other words, it was the computer! However, tantalisingly at the same time, Turing showed that there are problems, depressingly an infinite number of them, which are insoluble, not just because they are hard, but because it can be proved that they are ‘undoable’ or undecidable.  Computing cannot solve everything!

Turing’s greatest practical achievement during World War II, well known and  documented by movies such as Breaking the Code, was to tackle the German encryption system for their military communications.  This was their Enigma machine, a fiercely complex device which consisted of spinning wheels which transformed one letter into another but on a highly variable basis.  The code proved uncrackable by normal means, and the Allies were unable to decipher encrypted messages sent between German submarines (‘U-boats’), which devastated shipping and supplies sent between Britain and America.  The British government empowered Turing to set up a team of mathematicians and logical specialists who worked at a country house outside London and built the world’s first applied working computer called Colossus.  The enigma code was eventually broken, without which it is very likely that the western allies would have lost the war.  Turing’s contribution, in the world of information, was just as valuable as that of the battlefield generals.

After the war, Turing fell foul of the authorities, not because of any technical failing, but due to the bizarre reason of his homosexuality, which was illegal in Britain at the time.  He was prosecuted and was offered the alternatives of being sent to prison or submitting to a humiliating hormone treatment.  Shortly afterwards he was found dead of cyanide poisoning – it might have been an accident but was generally assumed to be suicide, at the tragic early age of 41,

After Turing’s death, Britain lost its lead in the development of computing machines and the initiative passed to the United States, to such an extent that Turing’s contribution and those of other British pioneers  were nearly forgotten.  The reason for this was simple: whereas the Americans saw computers as systems of huge technical importance and commercial potential, to be promoted by all means, the British saw them as strategic military devices to be kept secret at all costs.  Turing’s discoveries were kept out of the public eye for years under Britain’s Official Secrets Act, and his code breaking computer with all its records was destroyed by official order.  Not until 2009 did the Prime Minister Gordon Brown officially apologise for the treatment meted out to the genius who invented computing and won the world war for his country.

One week is history

Just a week since the iconic raid on Abbottabad and the achievement has become well, iconic, an established milestone in American history and culture, as set in stone, and seeming almost as long ago as the Revolutionary war - the ride of Paul Revere and the crossing of the Delaware - decisive glorious episodes so much better than the messy conflicts of WW2, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. An incisive, instant, total success with no American casualties - that is what patriotic history needs. The 150th anniversary of the outbreak of the messiest and proportionally bloodiest American conflict of all, the Civil War, has now been quietly shelved.
Of course, in the present age, there are commercial opportunities. Within an hour of Obama's announcement, we hear that a hot entrepreneur had registered the site obamadeadtees.com (nobody had the name before!) and was starting to print T shirts (illustrated) and selling them on the web site. Within 48 hours he had made his first US$ 100 000. The Jihadist had started his career as a millionaire property developer in Saudi, so he would have understood.
But that is the way all the bad guys will end, no matter how bad - as a corpse of course, but their legacy will live on, as a coffee mag and a T shirt.

Sitting up all night trying to finish a load of exam marking:


decided to take a break and flip the news on at 6am.


First TV image was of a cheering crowd in Washington. First thought: had the news of the Royal Wedding just reached America? Had the blessed couple decide to take their honeymoon in the white house (unlikely, since B.O. had not been invited).

No, an immediate cut to Obama in the last part of making his statement (a speech likely to go down in Presidential oratorical history, like the 'day of infamy') announcing that Osama Bin Laden had been killed. After the first moment of amazement, thinking that this had been a lucky strike by a drone or bunker buster bomb on a cave, the revelation that the Great Satan had his own custom built mansion in an urban area of Abbottabad (do they have abbot's in Pakistan?) less than an hour's drive from Islamabad. The networks had a hard time figuring out the exact distance - it's 50 km, not 100 km, 100 miles etc.

This was a massive structure, immovable property if there ever was one, mysterious because although presumably a million dollar residence, had no phone or internet connection, and because persons resembling known members of Osama's family had been seen going in and out! Probably also the house had planning permission applied for under Osama's own name! And within walking distance of Pakistan's most elite military academy. Actually within its security area! No wonder the Americans attacked without telling Pakistan first.

How is it possible that the Pakistani authorities had not been at least dimly aware of their new municipal resident? What does this say about US Pakistani exchange of imformation?
Meanwhile, the triumphalist crowds screaming 'USA' were gathering at 1 am in Washington and at ground zero. Their celebration is in order - even though it took nearly 10 years to find Osama. The removal of a charismatic figurehead is important - and for instance the death of Hitler almost immediately resulted in the collapse of the Third Reich - but al Qaeda is not the Nazi party - it is is a hydra-like organisation virtually independent in every territory it operates.

It should be realised that the 'war on terror' is by no means over - there will be thirst for revenge , and the coming days and weeks will be very dangerous times. The social and political problems in the middle east which gave rise to terrorism have, needless to say, not been addressed.

pic with acknowledgment to BBCnews

SWINE !

I commend you to the feature

in today's FIRST POST - long overdue, which begins to suspect the 'Swine Flu' phenomenon is an invention of the world media - highly infectious and spreading with enormous speed though every available carrier.

Just the name : SWINE FLU is a godsend for the media - 8 characters, perfect for headlines, and evoking a dread plague from those nasty dirty animals. The First Post says the problem is the general public's distrust of the media. Too right. In this and in every other context, we must remember that the media's only objective is to sell readers or viewers to advertisers. That's all they do. Maximising readership or viewership is just a step towards this objective. So any topic which can be blown into a crisis - is exciting or dramatic, which can whip up public indignation, even if no crisis actually exists, consistent of course with keeping the message within the readers' or viewers' mosquito sized attention span, is the thing to go for. That's why the mainstream media of course supported the Iraq invasion - war is exciting, and sells papers.

It helps the story too if the source of the problem is that laughably shambolic country Mexico. But what do we have, on examining the facts. How many people have provably died from the virus, even there. Seven. That's right. That's fewer than the number of people who have been bitten by a snake and then struck by lightning the same day this month in Africa. Has nobody thought that the air in Mexico city has something to do with the monopoly of fatalities there? It (the air) could kill anybody.

We have the ridiculous spokesman from the WHO - yogi bear with a white computer mouse clamped to his ear) - raising the alert to level five, whatever that means. There will be a huge increase in funding for public health organisations, and vast profits for Big Pharma.

The social network sites, especially the aptly named Twitter, promote an exponential ignorant panic.

And for what? But the risk is there, they say, even if it does not materialise. What about the 50 million who died in 1919? Yes, but things are a bit different from 1919. Then, they did not even know what a virus was. They had millions of soldiers crowded together and living in sub-human conditions. Now, we know what the organisms are. We are hopefully rather more settled and organised than in the aftermath of World War I. The disease can be treated. You have less chance of dying of flu than of winning the lottery.

So, worldwide, the enormous flu-scare industry has been re-launched. Hundreds of millions will be spent. On an ailment which, for those without a connection to Mexico, will be no more serious than a day or two of snuffles.

Incidentally, I think that viruses (structurally) are beautiful - a globe surrounded by little protein studs, all arranged, and for ever mutating, to latch on to receptor cells of their host. Maybe my sympathies are with them. (Picture courtesy of wikimedia)

$?$?$?$?$?$?$?$?

Sorry to seem a bit stupid, but can anyone explain to me the difference between:

1. bailing out the banks
2. making funds 'available' to banks
3. buying a stake in the banks
4. guaranteeing the loans between banks
5. buying up the bank's 'toxic' assets

Whatever the differences, they seem to have one similarity: they all cost hundreds of billions. And as these packages are announced one by one in breathless sequence, the German chancellor made the astounding statement that 'no bank would ever be allowed to fail !' (wish I'd taken up banking) And don't national parliaments have to approve this sort of thing, rather than being simply announced by presidents in their rose gardens?)

The stock markets race up and down, and the demented trader lemmings jump off the cliffs one day and sprint all the way up it the next. If prices move less than 5%, it is a really boring day.

What of the $700bn US bailout? That (as of today) is apparently of 'secondary' importance. We have a new package of $250 billion announced (is that part of the original 700, new money, or does it hardly matter?) for buying shares in the banks. Doesn't that announcement kind of affect the share price of the banks fairly insanely? What price is being paid for the shares? What is going to be done with the taxpayers' shareholding? Are all the banks' top brass continuing with the same bonuses and perks as before? Are the banks going to be differently run, maybe changing the previous universal policy of treating their customers with total contempt? That is one question easily anwered.

Latest use for cellular technology
Yup, that's right, to win the War on Terror.


The latest idea, put forward by British consultants, and approved by HM Government as having 'some merit' is to distribute cellphones with cameras (I thought for the past 5 years all cellphones had cameras) so that ordinary Afghan peasants could make their own videos as a counter to Taleban propaganda and post them on the web.
Story on the BBC.
Wonder whether it has occurred to the honourable government that
i) not so many Afghan peasants have internet access and blogger accounts and anyway
ii) most Afghan peasants ARE the Taleban.

File this idea under 'needs more work'.

PS my pic (ack to politicalimpressions.com) was image-googled under Afghanistan - if I had searched under Taleban the FBI spyware secretly but certainly installed on my computer would have put me on the Terror list. More of that tomorrow.

that was telling 'em !!

The bail-out is dead. You can tell that from the immediately following scintillating Bushism: "We will continue to move forward with Congress to develop a strategy of moving forward to solve this problem" or words to that effect (couldn't be bothered to copy and paste them.

Savour the unexpected and delicious moment - a rare instance of people power deflating the vested interest politicians.

Seeing, for me, for the first time, some of America's allegedly most senior politicians up close and speaking, it was a matter of disbelief. How could this incoherent rubbish: Pelosi, the speaker, Franks, the chairman of the so-called Finance committee, be the spokespersons and shepherds of the nation? And of course, the great piece of vegetation himself. There were better, more apposite comments from people in Main Street (actually Memphis Tennessee) who were interviewed straight after.

Oh and of course the entire congress will now take two days off for Rosh Hashona. After which, they will return to work to save the Nation.

Again, why the need for a bail-out? Disaster banks are immediately bought out by slightly better organised banks, and the central banks pour tens of billions every day into the market to improve 'liquidity'. That apparently doesn't need an Act of congress. How much more of a bail-out do they want?

5 trillion

(it's easier to say in our local currency N$ or Rand)

So much to say, so little time. The deal, according to the desperate would-be bailers-out, has to be done by this evening American time, so our Asian friends will be reassured when their markets open. That's decision making at about $10m per second.
Is it the end of capitalism as we know it? Is it the biggest act of state socialism in history? Yes to both.

What is that funny sound you can hear around that cemetary in London? Could it be Karl Marx howling in his grave?

Please check out the magnificent summary in today's Sunday Times

but just a couple of genuine queries from me:

1) Aren't the biggest problems already bailed (or bole, what is the past tense?) : e.g. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac and the $85 billion for AIG? What else is there? Does the $700 B include the 85 for AIG, or was that just incidental petty cash?
2) Why does the Treasury Secretary in America need unfettered dictatorial power (cannot be challenged by the courts, or anybody) as to how he dishes out the money?
3) Speaking of the markets, is there no better way of running them in future than idiots in clown jackets screaming at each other over a cable-cluttered floor, or weird computer programs suddenly deciding to dump huge amounts of stock without any seeming human supervision? Do stock prices have to go up 9% one day, then crash 10% the next day and so on? What will happen if the $700B is approved/not approved?
3) Does this mean that the US will now not have the cash to invade Iran ?

May we live in interesting times (we do already).

Not Winning



In my time zone, watching a presidential debate means staying up till 3am and most of the local TV channels don't have the rights (I thought they'd actually be paid to carry it).
So generally don't bother, as all the sound bites are of course available later and nothing new anyway.
There was the obligatory intro on the economy and the bailout - neither candidate has a clue what to do about it, but that's OK since not many people would want the responsibility of deciding whether and how to spend $700 B. My only thought is that it is terminally bizarre that a bunch of Wall St. bankers succeeded in doing what Bin Laden and the entire Soviet Union failed to do - bring the US economy to its knees.

Anyway, only to comment on the inevitable claim by McCain the no-brain that the war in Iraq is being 'won'. No. Wars in the Middle East are never won, least of all by foreign crusading forces. Sure, despots can be overthrown, armies can be routed, and even insurgencies - temporarily - squashed. But the wars are never won - they simple create a whole new batch of traumatic circumstances and bloody problems for the next generation; or sooner than that.
And as for Afghanistan - yes, 'we' - the US and NATO are doing the right thing, at least in the time we are not bombing wedding parties, and we are reversing actions of the Taleban when they were in power (specifically, reversing the Talebans' success in stopping the poppy trade). We are the good guys and the Taleban are the bad guys. But unfortunately, the Taleban will win because it is their country and not ours. The West (including Russia) has tried to conquer Afghanistan maybe ten time in the last 200 years, each more catastrophically than the last. Read the books.
Specifically, read the legendary (but still remarkably still living) Robert Fisk's Great War for Civilisation. It'll take you a year, so it's good value.

God Keeping His secrets?

Barely a day after being switched on, the large hadron collider suffered a glitch - a contact overheated, a magnet melted (serious when it's supposed to be operating at 2 degrees above absolute zero), and a tonne of coolant - liquid helium, at the surprisingly low price of $5 per litre, spilled. Sort of like when the fan belt broke on my car, on a larger scale.

The trouble, is when you have the world's largest machine, it's not enough to have the world's best physicists in attendance, you need the world's best engineers and mechanics as well, lots of them. I don't think eggheads on their own can manage something as complicated as this.

Environmentally, I'm also slightly worried about the huge use, and wastage of helium. This is the quintessential non-sustainable resource - it is an inert rare gas, impossible to manufacture outside of nuclear fusion reactions, and found only in a few spots on earth as a by-product of million-year radioactive decay. At a rate far greater than fossil fuels, it is being consumed faster than it is made. Its most important use is as the ultimate coolant - but it is used mostly trivially for balloons at children's parties. When the ballons burst, the helium floats out of the atmosphere for ever. Why can't hydrogen be used for this? It is admittedly explosive, but that has the added benefit of blowing some rich kids up.

Anyway, from a small problem, to a day or two's delay, to a stoppage of a month or so - and now the system won't be up until next year. A small voice sounds: what if this huge and expensive machine (very cheap of course compared with the 'bailout') - never works again? Is Higgs (one of the 999 names for God) keeping his secrets well guarded ?

Of particles

and pit-bulls

On Wednesday even Google deferred to the switch-on of the LHC with a nice circular graphic. A stunning achievement, first of all in engineering – the largest machine ever built, and then the unfolding science. Unfortunately, none of the major news media including the BBC employ any journalist with so much as a sixth grade in physics, so we get some rather uninformed populist comment. “$4 billion spent, and if there are no answers, that will be end of this rubbish”. Much God-pumping as well. The idea of front-line fundamental research is that there are no answers, or rather than any ‘answer’ obtained will raise at least two further and more interesting questions. Much scoffing that that the Higg’s won’t show up. Wouldn’t be surprised. Lots of other things will.

Of course there has been some journalistic jealousy from the US side, about this European experiment. Swiss cows grazing around down-at-heel suburban buildings etc. Well, the Americans could have had their own supercollider in Texas in the 1990’s. It was cancelled, ostensibly over expense, although $2bn would be a drop in the ocean compared with defence spending. No, I think the more likely reason was pressure from the creationists.

Which brings us to the Republican candidate for VP, the lady no one had heard of a month ago – the mayor of a 5000 strong town in the territory sold by the Russians in 1867 for a few $$ as being totally useless, and who then, due to the shambolic state of Alaskan politics, somehow captured the Governorship. Anything is possible there, because Alaska is a very freaky as well as very beautiful place. Foreign policy experience, or for that matter ever been out of Alaska? Yes, once to the US mainland to meet J Mc, once to Canada, and er,.. you can see Russia from one of the islands. Yes, this is the sparsely populated Chiotka peninsula, as far from Moscow as what New York is, as someone noted, whose governor, bizarrely, is the Russian oleobillionnaire Ramon Abromovitch, the owner of Chelsea football club. A neighbourly meeting between him and the now household word of Governor Palin would be irresistable. Even more if, after his mandatory stint as Prime Minister is done, President Putin assumes the reins again. The world, as the Putin and Palin show?

A disastrous decision or a masterstroke? Unfortunately the latter. An ignorant and isolationist creationist? An insult to America’s allies? Yes and yes, but these are sure winners in a US election. Because voters want candidates to be one of them – ignorant, isolationist etc etc. Terrifying smugness and self-assurance, behind those Heirich Himmler glasses? Yes. Answers to interviewers' questions on world politics, reminiscent of the 'answers' of a beauty pageant contestant? Of course, because that's what she was. But that's exactly what's needed - the US election (and many others) are beauty pageants. (Pres. Sarcozy?)

As the man on the UK 'First Post' e-papter noted: Ignorant candiates who don't panic have nothing to fear.

Impossible to go from a (very) small town mayor to President in a couple of years? What about Grover Cleveland, who went from mayor of Buffalo to governor of New York state, to President in less than three years, admittedly in 1882. Also, the comparison breaks down since he was a Democrat, pledged to root out small and (large) town corruption. A ridiculous idea? What about the derision when it was first suggested that Ronald Reagan might run for the Presidency?

A brilliant tactical choice – as Palin mania sweeps the country, Obama is already on his was to becoming no more than an interestingfootnote in American history. Poor Barack. He never had much to say anyway, apart from saying anything to anybody depending on the audience. I note that not even the spell checker recognises him now. And despite what it says in public, Middle America, behind the voting curtain, will vent its fury on a black who dared to stand for President. They won’t try again in a hurry. So this is just another instance of the Democrats’ incurable habit of putting up unelectable candidates.

So Palin will be just a heartbeat away from the Presidency – a 72 year old heart beat at that. It would not be surprising if McCain pops his socks sometime before 2012, or at least bows out at the end of his term, leaving the way open for Palin, who will then be President until 2020. Of course she will not be able to find any country on the map, and probably go to war with a country she has not heard of a couple of months previous, but that sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Get used to it.

As the lights dim out

and hopes fade

for the chance of a new Zimbabwe

and as all the wishful thinkers of the past two weeks turn their blogs and word processors to other issues,

we now realise what the Southern Africa 'development' community leaders meant when they called an 'emergency' situation to discuss the Zimbabwe situation. We thought they meant the emergency of ensuring the voice of the Zimbabwean people would be heard, but that was a fatuous misunderstanding. What they meant by an 'emergency' was the emergency of making sure that Mugabe remained in power.

What else would we have expected. African leaders will always rally round, and define themselves, on their lowest common denominator.

CRISIS, WHAT CRISIS ?

a favorite phrase

used by many politicians, by which you know that meltdown is imminent.

This time, uttered by Pres Thabo Mbeki of the Zimbabwean situation. Well, apart from the present electoral impasse, if 150 000% inflation, 80% unemployment and 25% population emigration does not constitute a crisis, what would, in Pres Mbeki's opinion? No wonder he does not worry about a little load shedding back home.

Expected, but infuriatingly, the SADC leaders at their special summit (talking until 5.00 in the morning - wow, they must have been exerting themselves) have come up with the bland statement urging that the presidential election results be declared (after 2 weeks) and that the results be respected. Especially if they are rigged by ZANU-PF of course. Equally unsurprising, there is the announcement from the Zim 'electoral commission' that the results of 23 constituencies will be recounted. All won by the opposition obviously.

Do the honourable group of SADC presidents realise that their summit cost many millions of (real) dollars of their impoverished taxpayers' money - who were expecting them to DO something about the Zimbabwean situation?

It is totally baffling. What spell does Mugabe have over other African, especially SADC leaders? He is the 84 year old leader of a bankrupt self-destroyed country. They, the neighbouring leaders, are no-nonsense and fairly tough politicians - Thabo Mbeki admittedly looks like and is a cretin, and Namibia is an ideological satellite of Zimbabwe - but it is not true, as some apologists say, that the others have insecure, weak democratic credentials. Nearly all have come to power in recent, respectable elections and are in a strong position to do something about the 'black hole' in their midst. Why are they terrified of Mugabe? He was not the only struggler for liberation in Zimbabwe, and the country is not his personal property. But, as the last person to be granted an in-depth interview with him revealed, even that is not the problem. He lives in his own reality bubble where he is convinced that he and the country are one and the same.

Does he hypnotise all the neighbouring leaders like a snake? Or is he, as a radio call-in suggested, like an obstinate stain on your underwear - you can try to wash it off, but it just won't go away ?

Do the other SADC leaders want to deal with the influx of millions of refugees without complaint, just so that Mugabe is placated? Why do they want a huge source of instability in their midst? Why do they want the wishes of the Zimbabwean people to be thwarted, and their desire for change to be blocked by rigged elections ? (it is a measure of how far the actual results went against them, that it has taken ZANU two weeks to figure out how to rig them back.)

Also expected (the tragedy of any situation is its utter predictability) is the dragging out of the land issue again, with dark warnings that white farmers are trying to take over their former properties. How did they all suddenly get back into the country to do that? Of course the reverse is true, in that the remaining 'white' farms are being threatened by the Mug's 20-year old 'war veterans'. Anyway, the former white farmers have been welcomed and set up in neighbouring countries such as Mozambique. Who the **** would now want to go back into Zimbabwe?

Is Mugabe, as the interviewer with him suggested, now plotting a massive revenge against his own people who rejected him - a bloodbath of the opposition to rival the Rwanda genocide?

If so, SADC leadership, who could have easily removed him if they had the courage, will have a very great deal to answer for.

SO WHAT ARE WE TO MAKE

of the Zimbabwe 'results' so far?

Obviously, Mugabe/ZanuPF did not win - if they had done - or a plausible case could be made out that they had, without the announcement being derisory - the results would have been announced very, very quickly. Civilised negotiations taking place ? Deals even being done? Not a chance.

First a grudging release of the parliamentary figures - meant to show a 'photo finish', and that the opposition victory was meagre. But this result does not matter much, since the Zimbabwean parliament these days has little power and in any case can always be suspended.

No, the important, because the personal thing, is the presidential contest. Although Mugabe has almost certainly lost this, it will be announced as a run-off. This will buy time of three weeks (or actually any time the ZANU appointed electoral court will grant). Enough for Mugabe to stage his own Cultural Revolution - the classic strategy Mao used when for once he felt under pressure. Call out the thugs, scream about 'puppets', beat opposition figures to a pulp, and reduce the country to mayhem. As the country is already in a state of ruin, this will not make much difference anyway.

If Mugabe thinks this has done the trick, the re-run will be held for him to win 'unopposed'. If not, a bit more mayhem will be manufactured, or the threat of it, whereupon, on cue, the military will step in, impose martial law, or stage a military coup, call it what you will, and Mugabe will be confirmed as president for the sake of 'national salvation'.

No, you haven't got rid of him yet. And he could live to 104.

Can he do it ?


In a few hours we may know.


The implications are awesome, and the cliche "historic moment" for once is literally true.

Can the ghosts of the slave trade, the Civil War, the lynch mobs, the civil rights movement, be finally laid to rest, by one massive event - the election of a black president?

Will the nightmare of the Bush administration be dispelled, and the international reputation of the US be restored? One simple decision by the American electorate can do it. Nice guys finish second? Not always. Hope like you've never hoped before.

It can't bee, can it?

Mike Huckabee has gained the approval of Iowa Republicans for the US presidential nominations. Yes, I know it was because of the hillbilly evangelicals of this rather isolated state. Yes, of course we know that the proceedings were more reminiscent of an 18th century huckster poll in Egland, rather than a proper election. (A lot of words beginning with H start flowing when Mike comes to mind).

But the awful thought arises, just as the first fear set in with GWB in 2000. It couldn't, could it? Another religionist in the White House, with God telling him what country to attack next? Another self-confessed anti-Darwinist, as Christopher Hitchens has said, all ready to stifle the progress of US science, with astronomers, biologists, cosmologists and geologists fleeing over the border to Canada or Europe, to avoid professing the new orthodoxy that the world was created in 4004 BC, to be taught in all US schools from 2009?

And what about the rest of the world, rolling around in hysterics at the prospect of a President Huckabee, something no comic writer could, prior to a few months ago, possibly have dreamt of? Please no, if the Leader of the free World has any chance of being taken seriously again.

Could happen to anyone....

The British Government a few days ago lost a bit of data (although it did not tell anyone until now). It was not a record or two, an inadvertently corrupted file affecting a couple of people at most. No, this ancient pillar of Western democracy, this holder of the special relationship with the leader of the Free World, this administration which keeps ever sleepless watch in its mission to guard the Nation against terrorism, lost the lot.

By that I mean the lot - all the information relating to child support payments in the UK (which means everybody, apart from a few recluses) - all the names of the parents, the addresses, telephone numbers and emails, the names and dates of birth of all the children, and in many cases, the bank account numbers and details of the families. All of them - 25 million of them.

For connoisseurs of IT history, this should rank as the most spectacular data security catastrophe case study of all time. And all because a little clerk downloaded this critical information on to a couple of CD's, (how was he allowed to do this?) and mailed them through the post. They did not arrive. Let us hope they landed in the dustbin of a bent postman who was hoping to score a couple of Amy Winehouse CD's. Otherwise, the opportunity for identity theft and paedophilia on a national scale beggars belief.

Could one contributory factor be the Labour government's merging of Revenue and Customs and excise, creating a bureaucratic behomoth, where nobody knows what anyone else is doing?

At the head of all of this stands the Chancellor of the Exchequer (minister of finance) - as you can see from the picture not the sharpest looking tool in the box. What can you expect anyway from a man who dyes his hair white and his eyebrows black?

I'm absolutely delighted

first of all that I'm back (can't believe I've been away for 3 months) and happy birthday to me

but much more importantly that Al Gore has won the Nobel Peace Prize. Almost as satisfying was the inevitable knee-jerk howl of fury from the fascists, flat-earthists, creationists, climate change denialists, and supporters of the war in Iraq. It proves that the rest of us are on the right track.

Yes of course, dubious characters have previously been awarded the prize - like the last apartheid president who had to be given a podium share with Nelson Mandela. But that does not detract from the importance and worth of the present award.

Congratulations to the prescient columnists like Christopher Hitchens who predicted this, and also in the aftermath urged him to run for President. Will he? It's an agonising question. No well wisher would want the new impetus to the environmental movement to be damaged by his essential side-tracking into petty politicking which the campaign would entail. And the unthinkable disaster if he lost. At the same time, the temptation to displace the shrill, fake Hilary is irresistible. The only Bush prediction which one can definitely agree with is that she would win the nomination but lose the election. I hope he does run, though first he must overcome the Democrats' unerring instinct to nominate a loser as their candidate.

And if he wins - eight years of wrong would be put to rights. What a resounding epitaph to, and what more fitting way, to nail down the coffin of the catastrophic Bush era.

photo with ack to slate.com

Alan Johnston
freed!


and congratulations. Thanks to Hamas, the new government of Gaza, for not only facilitating but implementing his release unharmed. Not a case of Hamas 'attempting to claim credit' for his release, as one one his BBC colleagues sneeringly put it, but credit earned and deserved. One might hope that this achievement will lead to some thaw and new openings in the stagnant mid-east peace process, but with the West's mind as tightly sealed as a jar of ten-year old jam, it is unlikely. Yet we can hope.

Good luck to Mr. Johnston - by right he should return to Gaza as correspondent, but that may be too much to ask in the short term. He looks fine, still running on adrenalin, as many have observed, the only discordant note being an Israeli flag plonked behind him as he was giving his first interview - the arsonist being given credit for putting out the fire.

Total Rage

at the latest news; at the stage when you can’t even bear to listen to a bulletin



Of course, it’s to do with Gaza and Hamas. But the fury is not caused by what some may assume – it’s fury at the wooden-headed West: at Bushie, Blair and Condi – these people at whose disposal is the best information, communications and presumably advice in history. Can these people never learn anything? Until their dying day (or last day in office) will it be the same broken phonograph record – “we don’t talk to terrorists, beacon of democracy, Iran’s nuclear threat, north Korea’s missile program, looking for moderate Arab states, pledge solidarity with Mahmood Abbas” etc. Mahmood we are coming to. What about the quest for ‘moderate’ Arab states? Maybe, first, the Arabs are looking for ‘moderate’ Western states to deal with. Ones that do not invade them, for instance..

The West wanted democracy in the Middle East. It didn’t work out too well in Iraq, so the next hope was Palestine. Elections were held there, but unfortunately the wrong party won – Hamas? What to do? Obviously, cut off all contact, dialogue and aid to the Palestinians and their authority. Because Hamas is a ‘terrorist’ organisation, and they don’t recognise Israel. Forgive me for getting confused, but I though there were a load of ‘respectable’ countries that don’t recognise Israel – Kuwait, Bahrain, Libya, Malaysia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, but the US deals very amicably with all of these, especially if they have oil reserves. The other demand of Hamas is that they respect any previous agreement mid-east agreements. That’s rich – presumably Israel was and is exempt from any such obligation.

So we refuse any dealing, and Israel even withholds the Palestinians’ own money – shared customs dues for instances. What a brilliant formula for a stable and ‘moderate’ Palestine and what encouragement for the Western ideal of the opportunity to cast a vote for the government of your choice. The Israeli’s left Gaza, but only for the purpose of turning it into the world’s largest open air prison – their very own Warsaw ghetto; an ominous comparison with Israel’s intent to obliterate with ‘Hamasstan’ on their doorstep.

So the Palestinian’s attempted to compromise, after the first outbursts of frustrated violence, to form a ‘unity’ government. Although Hamas had won the elections, they agreed to share power with their defeated rivals Fatah and old Abby was back at the centre of things again. Better? No chance. Israel and its American satellite will refuse any dealings with the unity government, because it still contains some Hamas. But they still ‘pledge support’ to Mahmood Abbas, the Palestinian president. What does one discuss with a (largely figurehead) president if we don’t deal with anyone in his government? Ask him for tea and discuss the weather? I don’t know – ask Dubya or Condi.

So, of course, frustrations boil over, Hamas are fed up of beings the mugs, no salaries are being paid and the people are basically starving, so of course Hamas seize their chance in Gaza where they are strongest and topple who they see as Western stooges – with or without Iranian help, who cares. Abby back in the West bank dismisses the government and its Hamas prime minister (it is not at all clear that he is empowered to do this) and declares a West Bank purely composed of his Fatah cronies. The West of course (and Arab states) pledge solidarity with Mahmood Abbas. He is a lame duck but who cares.

Suddenly it struck me that this is code for washing your hands of the problem. If you haven’t a clue what to do, you 'pledge your support for Mahmood Abbas’. He must be the most pledged politician in history. Everyone loves him. Why – because he will cause no problems, because he won’t and can’t do anything. Some American Indian tribes, I think, used to hold a pow-wow with a carved totem pole. They expressed their opinions and intentions to the pole, and if it did not answer, they assumed there was no counter to their arguments and they were free and justified to act as they desired. Mr Abbas is they a rather chubby totem pole, a placebo for the conflict. Is it any wonder that he is seen, not just by radical Arabs, a pure stooge and puppet of the West?

A final word on ‘terrorism’. There is a fact, not of course understood by the broken phonograph players, that there are two sorts of terrorist. One is the insane sort, typified by al Qaeda, which is impossible to deal with not only because it is fanatical, but also because it objectives are unattainable or even incomprehensible. The other sort of terrorist, usually nationalistically based, does have a political agenda, which can in principle be talked about. For instance, the IRA wanted British ruled Northern Ireland to be incorporated into the mainly Catholic Republic. That was a no-go. But what was the root problem? Discrimination against northern Catholics? Would the IRA settle for guaranteed equality and fair treatment for the Catholic community, and the reining in of the more extreme Protestant militias and assorted lunatics? Eventually, they did. And ETA – a bloody group, but with an agenda – independence of the Basque regions from Spain. They do not want actually to exterminate every Spaniard. Spain would not allow independence. But how about 75% autonomy, or call it what you will? A deal is surely possible.

Hamas I am sure are in the second group. They have a negotiable agenda, even if unpalatable. But unpalatable does not mean impossible. Sure, their young hotheads fire rather ineffective rockets into Israel. But even if they didn’t, Israel will find some other excuse not to talk to them. Just as the British refused to talk to IRA for a wasted bloody quarter-century. Eventually, a deal will be done. People cannot go on fighting forever. But don’t expect anything soon: not while the leadership of the Free World is a broken phonograph.